![]() ![]() Germany's decision to substantially increase its defence spending and donate lethal weaponry to the victim of an aggressor indeed represent a U-turn. The changes we have seen during the few weeks that have passed since the beginning of the war –namely, speedy passage of harsh sanctions packages against Russia, unanimous support for Ukraine and clear resolve to boost Europe's own defences – have been profound. ![]() Opinion in such capitals was that there was no imminent external military threat to the European Union territory or to the post-Cold War European security architecture. Meanwhile, the former KGB officers in the Kremlin grew ever bolder, sending their troops to butcher anti-Asad fighters in Syria, deploying their mercenaries to fight in African civil wars, poisoning Putin's political opponents with banned chemical agents, and interfering in elections in both Europe and North America.Īll of this proved insufficient to change the prevailing opinion in large European capitals. Yet after expressing outrage and calling the wars ‘wake-up calls’, Europe decided to push the snooze button and go back to sleep. In 2008, he sent his troops to Georgia to seize control of part of its sovereign territory, and in 2014, he waged war against Ukraine, severing parts of two of its eastern-most regions and illegally annexing the Crimean peninsula. ![]() Indeed, the current war is not the first time within the first quarter of this century that Putin has used military force against his neighbours. So the horror unfolding in Ukraine is surely shocking, but it’s hardly surprising. Canaries in the coal mine – the Balts, the Poles and a few western European Russia watchers – had been warning about exactly such a scenario for some time. When the Russian army poured across Ukraine's border and the first Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv and Kharkiv in the early hours of 24 February, most western observers called it a horrific development that no one could have foreseen, let alone have predicted. ![]()
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